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15 dramatic tipping points of climate change

Writer's picture: Torben MathiassenTorben Mathiassen

Updated: Jan 3


Graphic from the Stockholm Resilience Centre
Graphic from the Stockholm Resilience Centre

By now, most people have likely heard that we must, at all costs, avoid allowing global temperature increases to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, and ideally, not even 1.5 degrees Celsius. But why is that? In this article, I aim to provide some insight into this by focusing on 15 climate tipping points, or what science refers to as Tipping Points.

Tipping points are a kind of point-of-no-return, where once we surpass a given threshold, the resulting climate damage becomes irreversible. Some tipping points have far-reaching global consequences, while others are more locally focused.

Today, the planet is 1.1–1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before the industrial era, just 250 years ago. That may not sound like much, but the warming is explosive compared to temperature trends over the last 12,000 years. This is clearly illustrated in the graph below from www.futuretimeline.net.

Tipping points are estimated to occur at different stages of global temperature rise. In the following, I will briefly review the 15 major tipping points identified by scientists.


Tipping points occurring at temperature rises of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius.

These are tipping points that we can expect to occur within the next 25 years.

  1. Greenland’s Ice Sheet

    Greenland's ice sheet is a several-kilometre-thick ice cap containing 2.8 million cubic kilometres of ice. If all the ice melted, sea levels would rise by over 7 metres. Large portions of this ice melt every year, which is not new in itself. However, in the past, the melted ice would regenerate with winter snowfall. This is no longer happening. The consequence is that millions of litres of freshwater flow into the sea daily, causing sea levels to rise. Low-lying areas will experience flooding as a result, making vast land areas uninhabitable, particularly in the Netherlands and Denmark.

  2. Arctic Sea Ice in Summer

    At a temperature rise between 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, the Arctic will remain ice-free for much of the year. This means the sun's heat rays will no longer be reflected by the ice surface but absorbed by the sea, accelerating temperature increases further.Moreover, polar-adapted animals such as polar bears and walruses rely heavily on ice for survival. There are approximately 25,000 polar bears left in the world. If the ice melts beneath their paws, their hunting grounds will vanish, likely ending any hope for this magnificent predator’s survival on Earth.

  3. Mountain Glaciers

    In the river delta at the foot of the Himalayas, nearly 2 billion people depend directly on the world's "third pole" – the glaciers in the mountains. Meltwater from these glaciers sustains rivers, deltas, wildlife, agriculture, and the vast human population in the area. But at a temperature rise of just 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, the glaciers will melt faster than they can regenerate. This will lead to massive floods, contamination of clean drinking water, destruction of vast agricultural and forest areas, and forced migration of millions of people and animals. Conflicts will arise as more people are forced into smaller areas to share scarce resources.

  4. Coral Reefs

    The world's coral reefs are delicate ecosystems that provide a foundation for much of marine life, from small invertebrates that nourish smaller fish, to larger fish, and even up to whales.However, as oceans warm, they simultaneously become more acidic as they absorb large amounts of CO2, which coral reefs cannot tolerate over time. The tipping point occurs when coral reefs are no longer able to regenerate. This will result in mass extinction of an enormous diversity of marine life, much of which humans, particularly in Asia, depend on for daily food intake. The consequences could lead to hunger for millions.

  5. West Antarctic Ice Sheet

    If all the ice on West Antarctica melts, it would cause a five-metre rise in global sea levels. Combined with the 7 metres from Greenland’s ice sheet, this could lead to a total sea level rise of 12 metres. This won’t happen overnight, but the tipping point is when the ice can no longer maintain its previous levels. Ice shelves break off into enormous icebergs, floating in the oceans for years. The fragile biodiversity around Antarctica is at risk of extinction, including emperor penguins, seals, and whales. All depend on the ice, the plankton, and the cold; if ocean temperatures rise, everything will disappear.


Tipping points occurring at temperature rises of up to 4 degrees Celsius.

These are tipping points that could occur within the next 25 to 75 years.

  1. The Gulf Stream (Jet Stream)

    When Greenland's ice sheet melts (see Tipping Point 1), so much freshwater flows into the sea that it could dramatically affect the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is already at its weakest point in over 1,000 years. But what does this mean in practice?The Gulf Stream brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico along the North European coast, significantly contributing to the mild climate. If the Gulf Stream stops, weather in Northern Europe will change drastically, almost immediately. We will experience temperatures similar to those in the coldest parts of Siberia, with temperatures dropping as low as minus 50 degrees Celsius. Our societies are not prepared for this. Agriculture would collapse instantly, energy supplies would fail, and Northern Europe would largely become uninhabitable.The collapse of the Gulf Stream was what triggered the last ice age in the Northern Hemisphere. There is much debate about when this will happen, likely not for a few hundred years. But no one can say for sure.

  2. Atlantic Ocean Currents

    As global warming continues, ocean temperatures rise as well. Similar to the effects on the Gulf Stream (see Tipping Point 6), this influences ocean currents, which significantly impact the climate on land. Higher water temperatures mean increased water evaporation, leading to higher humidity, which blows inland and contributes to even more intense monsoon rains than ever before. In other regions, ocean currents will disappear, plunging land areas into droughts.Extreme weather will follow, whether through floods, drought, contaminated drinking water, migration, or conflict. It will all become a melting pot in affected areas, particularly in the Sahel, central and eastern Africa, and Asia.

  3. El Niño

    El Niño is a weather phenomenon that affects weather patterns worldwide, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. It involves a strong warming of surface water and the atmosphere, leading to extreme weather during the years it occurs. Particularly hard-hit are countries in South America and southern Africa. The phenomenon typically occurs every seven years, but as the tipping point is reached, this weather phenomenon will challenge inhabitants of affected countries as often as 5-6 times per decade. Floods of fields and homes, droughts, and infrastructure collapses will become annual occurrences. Hundreds of millions of people will experience significant instability in their lives, along with hunger and thirst.

  4. The Sahel

    The Sahel is a large geographical area just south of the Sahara that was once partly green. Lake Chad is located in this region and has long been a lifeline for 20 million people. However, in recent years, Lake Chad has shrunk to just 10% of its former size, with no signs of reversal. On the contrary, the tipping point will further dry out the Sahel, contributing to desertification in a region already severely affected by famine and conflict.However, some scientists remain divided on this. The changing ocean currents may bring increased rainfall to the region. Initially, this will cause flooding, which will dry up in subsequent years, but over time, there is a chance that the area may become green and fertile again.

  5. The Monsoon

    The warming of the oceans leads to higher humidity levels, which in turn lead to unprecedented monsoons that will flood vast areas in Asia and Central Africa. People will drown, lose crops, access to clean water, and their homes. Infrastructure will collapse and need to be rebuilt annually.We will witness millions of people affected by this weather phenomenon to such an extent that aid will be essential for their survival.

  6. The Amazon Rainforest

    The Amazon rainforest is so vast that it can create its own weather. The forest sustains millions of people and animals directly, and much of the world indirectly, as it produces 25% of the world's oxygen.The rainforest is like one large living organism, self-sufficient in rainwater and nutrients. But soon, we will reach a tipping point where the forest can no longer generate the rain needed for its survival. If this happens, the forest will dry out and turn into savannah, which contributes little to oxygen production. Millions of people in and around the forest will lose their livelihoods, and a vast array of biodiversity will vanish forever.

  7. The Northern Forests

    The northern forests in Alaska, Canada, and Siberia are adapted to an extreme climate where frost and snow are part of their annual rhythm. As temperatures rise, the surroundings become drier, increasing the risk of wildfires that are nearly impossible to extinguish. The peat-rich soil is bone dry and can burn underground, making it nearly impossible to put out.People and animals will be directly affected. In addition, billions of tonnes of CO2 will be released into the atmosphere during such wildfires, further escalating global temperature rises in a self-reinforcing cycle until no forests remain in the northern hemisphere. This region will instead turn into tundra and desolate steppes, where few animals and humans can survive. Those living in the north will be forced to move south, where the world is already densely populated.


Tipping points occurring at temperature rises above 4 degrees Celsius.

These are tipping points expected to occur around the year 2100.

  1. Arctic Sea Ice in Winter

    When the oceans have become so warm that no sea ice forms over the Arctic in winter, there will be nothing left to reflect the sun's rays. The heat from the atmosphere will have unhindered access to warm the sea even further, leading to more catastrophic consequences for the marine life that depends on cold water. Animal migration worldwide will be widespread, and suddenly we could see great white sharks in Denmark. More animal species will go extinct, and ecosystems will collapse.

  2. Permafrost

    The permafrost in the northern parts of the world has, for millennia, kept its secrets well. Dead animals and biological plant material lie buried in the ground, forming large gas pockets that are frozen. As temperatures rise, the ground will thaw to deeper layers. Enormous amounts of gas will be released into the atmosphere, triggering yet another self-reinforcing escalation of global warming.

    But that’s not all. Bacteria and viruses that have been frozen and are completely unknown to humanity risk resurfacing. The so-called zombie bacteria may come back to life, potentially becoming a major threat to human health and our livestock.

  3. The Ice on East Antarctica

    If all the ice on East Antarctica disappears, sea levels will rise by 50 metres. This would be the end for large parts of Northern Europe, which would then be underwater, along with vast areas across the rest of the world.


    Is science correct in its assumptions?

    The 15 identified tipping points make for uncomfortable reading. It’s certainly not easy to come to terms with. As a result, many will be inclined to dismiss them as alarmist or exaggerated doomsday warnings.

    It’s entirely possible that not all the predictions will come true. It’s also possible that they won’t occur in the expected sequence. But the fact remains that we are in the middle of a game whose outcome we cannot influence once it reaches a certain point. I personally have little desire to see the events in my novel MALI unfold in reality. Nor do I wish to witness the conflicts and wars that will inevitably follow resource scarcity, such as food and clean drinking water.

    We don’t have much time left to change course before the first tipping points are reached. And as hopefully conveyed in the above writing, several of the tipping points will affect each other like dominoes.

    (This blog post is a translation of a post published in January 2023 on my Danish speaking blog)


    Sources:

    https://nbi.ku.dk/nyheder/temaer/tipping-points/


    https://detfaellesbedste.dk/problemer/planetaere-graenser/tipping-points/


    https://videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/naturvidenskab/klimatiske-tipping-points-kan-fastlaase-ustoppelige-forandringer-paa-kloden-hvor-taet


    https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/global-warming-future-timeline.htm


    https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/six-ways-loss-of-arctic-ice-impacts-everyone


    https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1605690113


    https://bonpote.com/en/antarctica-an-inevitable-climate-tipping-point/


    https://grist.org/climate-tipping-points-amazon-greenland-boreal-forest/

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